London, UK: The UK government has responded to the threat posed by the corona virus with an action plan.
Government analysis suggest that up to a fifth of the national workforce could be absent from work if the virus spreads.
The measures would only be rolled out if the virus moved beyond the currently designated “contain” phase. The plan identifies various scenarios ranging from a milder pandemic to a “severe prolonged pandemic as experienced in 1918” when the Spanish Flu killed 50 million worldwide.
At the moment 39 people have been identified as infected in the UK. At a press conference today, the prime minister said it was “highly likely” the number of cases in the UK would rise but that “for the vast majority of people in this country we should be going about our business as usual”.
The plan allows businesses facing short-term cashflow because of low demand from customers to ask HMRC how to avoid falling behind with tax.
Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer for England, said he was reasonably confident “probably around 1% of people who contracted the virus might end up dying, based on the Chinese experience”. However, he said, it could be lower than that because there was no way to tell how many people had the illness but no symptoms.
He said the proportion of the total population who might contract coronavirus would not pass 80% but it would probably be a “lot lower than that”.
Despite earlier suggestions that cities could be put on lockdown to try to contain the illness, experts are now suggesting that would have little effect. Whitty said locking down cities was most useful when an outbreak started in one place rather than emerging all over a country, suggesting this scenario was unlikely in the UK.
Whitty also dismissed the idea of further travel bans because the virus has already reached the UK and it would “make no difference”.
China is the country most affected at the moment by the corona virus with severe disruption to its air and sea routes. In addition to halting public transport, Chinese authorities suspended all flights in and out of Wuhan – a major industrial and transport hub in the inland Chinese province of Hubei where the outbreak first emerged.
Since then more than a dozen Chinese cities have been put under full or partial ‘lockdown’ through similar transport bans. Severe disruptions to inbound and outbound air cargo shipments, trucking and rail cargo services, as well as heavy port congestion for vessels along the Yangtze River near Wuhan are expected to persist as the coronavirus crisis unfolds.
The regional lockdown has already severely impeded logistics operations that rely on access to highways to carry goods into and out of the region, while severe delays should also be expected on inbound and outbound air cargo shipments. In addition, ships have been prohibited from calling in Wuhan – on the banks of the Yangtze River – as authorities ordered terminals to stop operations in a bid to slow down the outbreak.
The virus outbreak appears to have been contained in China with a drop in the number of people falling ill. Supply chains in China are still in the recovery phase. With the exception of Hubei province, other regions a resumption of work and production. Normal working and production capacities are expected to resume by mid-March.
But bottlenecks in logistics that have resulted from the earlier shortage of drivers and congestion at port terminals will remain a short term problem. By mid-March, the market should return to at least 70 – 80% of the productivity level it had prior to the Lunar New Year season, Kuehne+Nagel says .
Overall, the trucking service situation is gradually improving nation-wide. It remains challenging in North and West China, where cargo pick-up and delivery are still under restrictions.
All key Chinese ports, except Wuhan, continue to operate at lower capacity due to a limited workforce, yard density, slow cargo pick-up, and the ongoing shortage of reefer plugs at terminals. The port authorities of several countries have imposed additional precautionary measures, such as health declarations and a strict ban on the disembarkation/embarkation of the crew from incoming ships that have called at the Chinese mainland in the last 14 days. Extended blank sailings on long haul trades will continue until mid-March.
Wuhan airport is still closed to passenger flights and receives only relief missions. All other airports in China Mainland and Hong Kong are operational. Since the production levels in China have gradually started to resume, Kuehne+Nagel foresees an increase in the demand for air logistics. This will add more pressure to the overall reduced capacity caused by the limited passenger flight activity.
