The sight of people walking about wearing face masks as protection against the corona virus, when there is no evidence that masks have any benefit, is a reminder of how rational thinking disappears in the face of health scares.
And the corona virus has all the makings of being just that: a scare. Yet the effect of panic measures, including by governments, has been to exacerbate the problem from a health concern to a major economic catastrophe.
The language coming from Boris Johnson’s government, which was very tardy in its initial response, has not helped either, with talk of “battle plans” and “wars against a virus” that are not appropriate. Johnson talked of a four-point emergency strategy, with “sweeping new powers” to meet “a national challenge”.
There are a little over 200 cases of infection in the UK at the moment. Compare this to seasonal flu where death rates from complications have in some years run into the thousands. There was no talk of closing public events and battle plans then. Nor should there be now.
We have been here before with vCJD, better known as BSE, that was predicted to kill millions: 177 Britons died of vCJD. The first Sars outbreak of 2003 was predicted to kill tens of millions: fewer than 1,000 die worldwide. Then in 2009, pigs replaced birds with swine flu that chief medical officer, Liam Donaldson, said could kill 65,000 people. He spent £560m on a Tamiflu which was known to have little benefit and a short shelf life. The Council of Europe’s health committee chairman described the hyping of the 2009 pandemic as “one of the greatest medical scandals of the century”.
Is it any wonder that those of us with a jaundiced view of politicians and governments think that coronavirus is at worst a slightly more virulent version of flu? And if we did not plan to shut down the country for seasonal flu, then why are we doing so for this virus? Somehow the government message in its action plan that the virus is highly contagious, but the “great majority” of those who develop symptoms will experience only a “mild-to-moderate but self-limiting illness,” has not got through.
Instead we have ministers claiming to be in contact with food retailers to discuss the food supply which mysteriously is now threatened. Panic buying of hand sanitisers does not mean there is a food shortage or that food logistics has failed. Poor reporting does not help matters either, such as blaming the failure of the FlyBe airline on the virus, despite years of mismanagement and losses.
It would help if events were not cancelled, factories and offices not closed, and holidays not abandoned. But already the economic damage is being done. A few more months of this and the world will be in recession. And for what?
We may well be wrong, and this may prove to be a far more serious problem. Yet reports from China suggest that the epidemic is abating with no new cases.
